Tariffs top of mind

As we look ahead to 2026, global equity markets are poised for a crucial period where corporate earnings must meet investor expectations amid lingering geopolitical tensions and economic challenges. Emerging markets present intriguing opportunities, bolstered by the easing monetary policies and potential currency shifts. The resolution of the US-China trade war offers China room for economic stimulus, while other Asian economies might benefit from shifts in manufacturing dynamics.

De-globalization trends have given way to regionalization as global trade continues on a smaller scale with localized supply chains becoming more prevalent. Despite this shift, tariffs remain a significant factor influencing international commerce and local production strategies; their impacts are both complex and far-reaching across industries.

In the US, an unexpected robustness is projected for the economy next year driven by consumer spending at higher income levels despite inflationary pressures affecting lower-income households. Tariffs continue to play a temporary yet influential role in shaping investment flows and economic growth forecasts but are expected to exert only minor drag on GDP growth moving forward.