Global Macro Insights: January 2026

Global growth showed modest signs of improvement in January, even as pockets of weakness and policy uncertainty persisted. Most central banks kept rates on hold, reinforcing the view that the global easing cycle is nearing its end, while a weaker US dollar and mixed moves in bond yields reflected shifting expectations across regions. Geopolitics re-emerged as a key risk factor, with developments in Venezuela, Greenland and Iran adding to already fragile sentiment around trade policy and tariffs.

Looking ahead, the backdrop remains one of resilient but vulnerable growth, with markets watching legal rulings on tariffs and evolving fiscal stances in major economies. Against this setting, themes such as improving emerging-market fundamentals, a gradually weakening dollar and ongoing “global rewiring” of supply chains continue to shape opportunities and risks for diversified portfolios.