The Great Reset

Geopolitical shock from the US and Israeli strikes on Iran has pushed oil sharply higher, pressured equities, and driven a flight to Treasuries, underscoring how fragile sentiment is at today’s elevated valuations. Unlike the post–Iraq War rally in 2003, investors now face a market that is priced for optimism, leaving less margin for error as events unfold. At the same time, there appears to be a broader inflection in policy direction, with the US pushing back against both international bureaucratic overreach and state or non-state actors seen as hostile to open markets.

For investors, this suggests preparing for higher volatility in energy and defense-related assets while recognizing that war-driven price moves can reverse quickly if risks recede. The larger story may be a renewed commitment to defending capitalism and rule of law globally, which could ultimately support long-term growth prospects even as near-term uncertainty remains high.