US/Iran conflict: global equity impact

The coordinated US–Israeli strikes in Iran have pushed geopolitics to the forefront, but markets so far are pricing a crisis rather than a full-blown catastrophe. The key swing factor is whether conflict remains military-to-military or spills into prolonged disruption of energy and shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Early price action in global equities and oil suggests investors still lean toward a contained escalation scenario, with Brent’s intraday reversal signaling confidence in an eventual supply response from OPEC.

Risks would rise sharply if there is sustained closure of Hormuz, direct attacks on GCC energy infrastructure, or a broader activation of Iranian proxies across the region. On the positive side, any credible move toward “talks about talks,” facilitated by Oman or Qatar, could compress risk premia and support an equity rebound as investors recalibrate away from worst-case outcomes.