Alternative Allocations: The conflict in Iran—private markets implications

The coordinated US–Israel strike on Iran and the ensuing conflict have triggered a sharp oil price spike, renewed inflation concerns and a risk-off tone across public markets, but they have not altered the long-term case for private assets. In the near term, investors should expect elevated volatility, delayed Fed rate cuts and slower exits in private equity as M&A and IPO activity pause while uncertainty persists. Yet this same backdrop is reinforcing structural demand for liquidity in secondaries and widening spreads in private credit, creating more attractive entry points for patient capital.

Real estate debt stands to benefit as traditional lenders pull back, while repriced equity opportunities emerge in sectors supported by durable trends such as logistics, health care and housing. At the same time, themes like deglobalization and energy transition are accelerating interest in infrastructure—particularly digital networks, decarbonization projects and supply chain reshoring—positioning well-chosen private market strategies to turn short-term dislocation into long-term value creation.