On My Mind: Not partying like it’s 1979

Oil’s recent spike has jolted markets, but the move so far looks materially less severe than past oil shocks, with inflation likely pushed higher yet still short of crisis territory. The US economy appears set for slower, not stalled, growth as higher gasoline prices weigh on consumers while fiscal support and AI-driven capital spending help cushion the blow. This backdrop widens the gap between a relatively resilient, energy-secure United States and a more vulnerable Europe facing greater stagflation risk.

For investors, this environment reinforces structural support for the US dollar and highlights selective opportunities in oversold software names where AI is more catalyst than existential threat. Emerging markets and global fixed income demand careful differentiation: commodity exporters and fiscally sound countries may weather volatility better, while elevated debt levels and renewed inflation pressures leave duration broadly unattractive.