Equity Market Commentary - March 2026

Markets are grappling with three headline risks—AI disruption, Middle East tensions and private credit stress—but the narrative may be more alarming than the underlying fundamentals. AI is being treated as a threat to incumbents, yet it is more likely to prove a broad profitability tailwind over time, much as the internet did in the late 1990s. Oil’s sharp move higher underscores how unreliable energy forecasts can be, reinforcing a disciplined approach that avoids chasing prices in either direction.

By contrast, strains in private credit look more structural, driven by liquidity mismatches and rapid growth rather than a clear macro downturn in credit quality, and this remains the most important risk to monitor for equities. In an environment where macro fears dominate pricing and earnings revisions have been punished despite solid fundamentals, advisors may find that selectively realizing losses and reallocating into companies with strong momentum, improving earnings expectations and active buybacks can position portfolios for the post‑volatility phase of this election cycle.