What’s the earnings outlook for the first quarter of 2026?

First-quarter S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 12.6%, extending a run of six straight quarters of double-digit profit growth. Markets have improved lately, and that move appears increasingly supported by stronger fundamentals, with full-year 2026 earnings estimates also moving higher despite geopolitical uncertainty.

Technology remains the clear leader, with semiconductors driving much of the upside and the Mag 7 still set for solid gains. Financials and materials are also showing broad strength, while energy could look flat near term before rebounding later in the year.

Some sectors will lag, including health care and communication services, but overall profit trends remain constructive across market caps. For investors, the key message is that volatility may persist, yet earnings momentum continues to offer a firm foundation for equity exposure.