Bayes and Base Rates 2.0: How History Can Guide Our Assessment of the Future

The follow-up to “Bayes and Base Rates” reinforces a simple but powerful lesson for investors: history should be the starting point, not the conclusion.

Applied to companies such as OpenAI, base-rate analysis suggests that some growth forecasts look extraordinary by historical standards, even if they are not impossible.

The opportunity lies in rapid product adoption, strong near-term sales momentum, and the ability of intangible-heavy businesses to scale quickly.

At the same time, investors should stay cautious because disruptive innovation does not always translate into sustained organic growth, and many past leaders reached extreme sales levels through acquisition rather than execution alone.