Not So Bad

The US economy is facing real pressure from higher gas prices and sticky inflation, but the recent oil shock appears more temporary than structural.

Growth has slowed from the post-pandemic surge, yet key indicators like GDP, jobless claims, and manufacturing still point to expansion rather than recession.

The bigger drag may be the larger role of government and a slower money supply backdrop, which help explain why growth remains modest even with strong technology trends.

For investors, that means caution is warranted on valuations and near-term Fed policy, but the broader economic picture looks more resilient than the current gloom suggests.