Private Equity 2026 Midyear Outlook

A multi-year recovery in M&A appears to be taking hold, with total deal value rising even as macro volatility and geopolitical shocks continue to test investor confidence.

Private equity has not yet fully joined the rebound, especially in the middle market where higher rates and cautious capital deployment are still slowing activity. That said, improving exit conditions and a likely easing of uncertainty later this year could help broaden participation across smaller deals.

Late-stage private growth companies are also drawing more capital, particularly AI-enabled businesses that are staying private longer and creating value before any public listing. For investors, the opportunity is attractive but selective: valuation discipline, manager quality, and the durability of earnings growth will matter as much as access to promising assets.