Author: Just Summit Editorial Team
Source: Federated Hermes
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The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time highs from July, buoyed by strong performances in defensive sectors such as REITs, Utilities, and Health Care. This breadth of stock performance could indicate market resilience despite historically challenging months ahead, as evidenced by a significant portion of S&P 500 stocks remaining above their 200-day moving averages.
The upcoming presidential election is influencing market sentiment, with potential stimulus measures likely to support Kamala Harris's candidacy. However, volatility in the market has sharply decreased, with the VIX dropping to below its long-term average and commodities showing weak demand signals.
Economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook; new home sales are strong, but U.S. manufacturing PMIs are soft, and revisions to nonfarm payrolls indicate downward adjustments. Both presidential candidates are proposing large tax cuts without clear funding plans, raising long-term debt concerns.
Globally, Eurozone PMIs showed improvements, while bond market responses suggest a muted reaction to rising deficits. Harris's policy proposals, including price controls reminiscent of 1971, could point to a potentially more interventionist economic approach, but the influence of tech donors may temper aggressive antitrust actions.
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