The President’s Trophy Curse

This piece uses the so‑called “President’s Trophy curse” in hockey to illustrate how intuitive narratives can clash with basic probability. While fans see the best regular‑season team frequently falling short in the playoffs as evidence of a curse, the data show that President’s Trophy winners have actually won far more Cups than they would if every playoff team had an equal chance.

Even in the hard salary cap era, where parity is higher and the edge has narrowed, finishing first still meaningfully improves championship odds. The broader takeaway for investors is that strong fundamentals or leading positions do not guarantee outcomes, but they do tilt probabilities in your favor over time.

Investment decisions should therefore focus on improving odds rather than chasing certainty or being swayed by eye‑catching but misleading stories.