The MOU and Warsh: A Changing Macro Landscape

Last week brought two developments that could reshape the outlook for markets. The Iran memorandum may ease a major geopolitical shock and help oil flows normalize, which could cool energy prices and support supply chains in the months ahead.

At the same time, Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting signaled a slightly more hawkish stance, even as he emphasized unity and a careful approach to reform. That mix leaves rates less likely to fall quickly, though softer inflation trends could still keep policy steady if growth slows.

For investors, the near-term opportunity is in lower commodity pressure and reduced conflict risk. The main risks are that the peace proves fragile or that tighter monetary policy weighs on valuations if inflation does not continue to ease.