Summer squall brewing

US equities have rebounded sharply from the spring selloff, helped by falling oil prices and a strong first-quarter earnings season. Even so, the market faces a more uncertain stretch as it absorbs a Fed leadership change, elevated geopolitical risk tied to Iran, and the seasonal weakness that often appears in midterm election years.

Inflation may ease if energy prices keep drifting lower, but any flare-up in the conflict could quickly reverse that trend and pressure both rates and sentiment. History suggests investors should expect volatility in the June-to-October window before conditions improve later in the year. For now, a more defensive stance looks prudent, with room to add risk again if markets pull back meaningfully.