Why the bull market has kept defying the bears

Stocks have defied bear forecasts by staying near record highs, even with rising oil prices and tighter monetary policy. This resilience stems from robust nominal growth and steady corporate earnings.

Credit spreads have stayed contained, economic activity continues to expand, and strong consumer and corporate balance sheets suggest limited impact from further rate hikes. The economy's reduced energy intensity and smaller share of income devoted to gas also play a role, along with potentially temporary supply disruptions. We'll be watching to see if these factors continue to outweigh inflationary pressures and restrictive policy.