Recent News on GDP and the Fed

The economy continues to expand at a healthy pace, defying recession fears with 3.4% real GDP growth in Q3 driven by consumption and business investment, particularly in AI and data centers. This strength underpins a remarkably resilient job market, evidenced by historically low unemployment claims and steady payroll growth, even with demographic shifts.

The Federal Reserve paused its rate hikes last week, but we see a high probability of another increase in December. More significantly, the Fed is subtly altering its meeting cadence, a move we deem insufficient to address deeper structural issues or curb market speculation on policy shifts.

We expect further Fed reforms, but these will likely require a change in leadership to truly challenge the status quo. Investors should watch for the Fed's next move on rates and any signals regarding its long-term policy strategy.